Americans are projected to legally bet $29.5 billion on the 2026 NFL season through regulated commercial sportsbooks, according to a new American Gaming Association estimate. That would barely move from the $29.4 billion wagered last season, pointing out a sharp slowdown after years of major expansion.

The AGA says the numbers cover legal, state-regulated commercial sportsbooks. It argues that prediction markets are increasingly competing for sports wagers while offering contracts nationwide, including in states where conventional sports betting remains illegal.

“We’re excited for the NFL season to kickoff, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting had seen tremendous growth,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. “But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called “prediction markets,” the growth of legal handle has stalled.”

Prediction markets squeeze growth in regulated NFL betting

The slowdown follows a year in which prediction platforms sharply increased their visibility. Sensor Tower research compiled for the AGA found licensed sportsbook digital advertising impressions fell nearly 14% during 2025. Meanwhile, prediction-market advertising surged, and about 43% of digital sports wagering ads seen during early 2026 lacked state-mandated responsible gaming messages because they came from prediction-market operators.

Kalshi alone generated roughly 5.2 billion advertising impressions early this year, compared with around 2.9 billion for FanDuel. The AGA also says sports contracts now account for about 80% of Kalshi’s volume.

Questions over oversight reached Congress in May, when senators heard competing arguments about whether sports event contracts should fall under federal commodities rules or state gambling laws. AGA officials portrayed the platforms as sportsbooks operating outside established state systems, while industry representatives argued they are federally regulated exchanges where users trade against each other.

Age restrictions are another dividing line. The AGA estimates users aged 18 to 20 generated $5.1 billion in Kalshi volume, although that group falls below the legal sports betting age in 35 of the 40 jurisdictions allowing wagering.

“These “prediction market” platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment,” Miller added. “Kalshi and other “prediction markets” say they don’t need to follow state- and tribal- regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides.”

The AGA calculated its $29.5 billion projection using 2026 national handle growth, last season’s estimated total and football-specific data from selected states. It includes preseason betting, futures placed from March onward, the playoffs and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027.

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