Kalshi and Polymarket combined for 1.33 million of the 2.8 million NFL betting app downloads recorded in Week 2, extending prediction markets’ early lead over sportsbook apps.
Total NFL betting app downloads rose 28% year over year in the week ending Sept. 21, according to Sensor Tower data cited by Citizens. Through the first two weeks of the season, growth reached 19%, with the two prediction-market exchanges accounting for roughly 47.5% of Week 2’s total downloads.
Kalshi, Polymarket Outpace DraftKings and FanDuel
Kalshi logged 706,000 Week 2 downloads and Polymarket added 624,000. Through two weeks, Polymarket leads all tracked operators at 1.37 million downloads, with Kalshi close behind at 1.31 million.
DraftKings ranks third at 805,000 downloads and FanDuel fourth at 502,000, well behind both exchanges. Citizens attributed the sportsbooks’ comparative weakness partly to difficult year-over-year comparisons and the absence of the new state launches and customer-acquisition pushes that boosted downloads last season, a dynamic already showing up in how established sportsbook apps are competing for share. Week 3 opens Thursday night with Green Bay hosting Atlanta.
A Choppy Week for Sportsbook Results
The download shift came during an unpredictable Week 2 on the field. New Orleans beat Baltimore and Cleveland beat Tampa Bay, both as 8.5-point underdogs, while unders cashed in 10 of 16 games. Through two weeks, favorites are 23-9 straight up but just 17-15 against the spread, and unders have hit in 17 of 32 games.
Citizens said its customer-wallet analysis suggests prediction-market adoption may be expanding the overall wagering market rather than simply pulling customers from sportsbooks. The firm expects sportsbook handle growth to accelerate later this year as operators clear last season’s comparisons.
Pricing Still Favors Sportsbooks on Parlays
Downloads are one measure; pricing is another, and there Kalshi’s edge is narrower. Across 30 pricing observations collected Sept. 18, Kalshi’s average implied vig on moneyline and totals markets was 4.22%, versus 4.43% at FanDuel and 4.50% at DraftKings, excluding Kalshi’s transaction fees.
That advantage disappears on parlays. In a separate 15-observation sample of favorite-and-over combinations, Kalshi’s average implied vig hit 26.4% against 23.9% at DraftKings, and Citizens said Kalshi’s combo pricing ran 6% higher than FanDuel’s before fees. Combos still generated $26 billion in Kalshi volume over the trailing 30 days, 53% of its total, up from a 44% average over the prior 90 days – part of the broader trend behind Kalshi’s widening trading-volume lead. The exchange posted its first $3 billion day on Saturday, with Sunday volume near $2.82 billion, up 14.6% week over week according to TickerTracker – notional figures that remain distinct from, and not directly comparable to, traditional sportsbook handle.
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