Netflix’s latest documentary has landed before it has even premiered, but not for the reasons the streaming giant might have hoped.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has sent Netflix a cease-and-desist letter accusing it of fabricating part of the trailer for Instadocs: The Prediction Games, claiming the promotional video falsely depicts trading on its platform in violation of a Nevada court order.
The July 24 letter, seen by ReadWrite, addressed to Netflix’s Director & Senior Counsel for Intellectual Property Lindsey Faivus, accuses the company of using “fabricated documents and false and misleading statements portraying trades being made on Kalshi in violation of a court order.” Kalshi demanded the trailer be removed within an hour and that Netflix issue a public retraction.
What should have been a fairly ordinary documentary moment, i.e., a World Cup watch party in Las Vegas, one participant proudly declares, “I like betting on Kalshi,” before holding up what appears to be a receipt showing a $5,000 trade on Spain to win the tournament.
Another participant boasts: “The guys in this house have made millions of dollars on prediction markets.”
The timing is notable. Reuters recently reported Kalshi processed $27 billion in trading volume and attracted around three million users during the World Cup, making the tournament a breakout moment for the regulated prediction market platform.
Kalshi suggests alleged inconsistencies put Netflix prediction market trailer under scrutiny
According to Kalshi, however, the trailer creates the impression that the trade took place in Nevada on July 19, 2026, despite a court order preventing the company from offering sports event contracts there since May. The company argues that implication is more than just inaccurate, it could undermine its ongoing legal battle with Nevada regulators.
Kalshi then proceeds to pick apart the receipt almost line by line.
It says the image is dated May 16, 2025, more than a year before the documentary says it was filmed. The phone screen also displays the word “Crop”, which Kalshi says suggests the participant is showing a saved image rather than using the app itself.
The company also claims the numbers simply do not add up. According to the letter, the Spain market had only around $580 in total trading volume during May 2025, making the apparent $5,000 trade impossible. It also points out that its platform has never used terms including “Bet Slip”, “Bet ID” or “wager”.
A documentary about prediction markets sparks a backlash from the industry
Brandon Beckhardt, the company’s chief of staff, accused Netflix of missing the bigger story altogether.
“Netflix had a chance to make a genuinely interesting documentary about prediction markets,” he wrote on X. “Instead, they made a sensationalized film built on fiction.”
He alleged the trade slip shown in the trailer “looks nothing like our UI” and claimed it was “either photoshopped or AI-generated.” Beckhardt also questioned the choice of contributors, writing that “the people in the trailer aren’t even Kalshi traders.”
Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick struck a similar tone, saying Netflix had “a chance to make a genuinely interesting documentary about prediction markets” but instead produced “a sensationalized film that had a clear agenda.”
She also challenged the trade itself, writing: “Beyond the trade slip being a total fake, there’s no way this trade even happened. By the end of May 2025, total volume on Spain was $510.”
According to Kalshi’s letter, the company raised its concerns directly with a Netflix employee responsible for editing the trailer before release.
Kalshi claims the employee acknowledged they had not realized the receipt was dated a year earlier or noticed the “Crop” label at the top of the image. The employee allegedly agreed the receipt would not appear in the finished documentary but declined to remove it from the trailer despite being told it was misleading. The letter also claims the employee said they were “not worried about that” after Kalshi warned the footage could create legal complications.
The company also notes that the gathering took place at a residence owned by a casino during a World Cup party hosted by Winible, which one participant describes in the documentary as “essentially OnlyFans for the sports betting creator economy.”
Kalshi argues that is significant because Winible has commercial relationships with sportsbooks and casinos, while Kalshi itself is engaged in legal battles with casino operators over the expansion of prediction markets.
Ironically, while Kalshi objects to how the documentary portrays its platform, The Prediction Games is hardly a promotional film.
The film explores both the promise and pitfalls of prediction markets
Several contributors openly discuss the downsides of prediction markets.
Trader Isaac warns that influencer culture is becoming part of the problem.
“One of the things that is most dangerous, in my opinion, is an influencer saying how they paid their rent by guessing the weather, or some person on YouTube talking about how easy it is to get rich quick,” he says. “The more people you expose to that vice, the more people who are going to have serious problems.”
Another trader, Daniel, offers an even starker account.
“It has been the cause of significant stress, like I haven’t paid my rent for a month because of this specifically.”
Prediction market analyst Dustin Gouker goes further, arguing that legal distinctions do little to change the underlying behavior.
“It may not be legally gambling, but what is happening is 100% just gambling,” he says, estimating sports contracts account for around 85% to 90% of activity on Kalshi. He also questions whether Donald Trump Jr.’s positions on the boards of both Kalshi and Polymarket create potential conflicts of interest.
The documentary also includes Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman Michael Selig, who dismisses those concerns.
“There are agreements and walls that are put in place such that we’re not dealing with any members of the president’s family when it comes to policy,” he says. “So in my belief and understanding there is no sort of conflicts of interest.”
Author James Surowiecki, whose book The Wisdom of Crowds helped popularize prediction markets, argues the industry’s biggest risks are insider trading, attempts to manipulate outcomes and the possibility that markets can end up influencing the very events they are supposed to predict.
Netflix describes Instadocs: The Prediction Games as an exploration of how prediction markets have evolved from a niche financial product into a mainstream phenomenon spanning politics, sport, entertainment and the weather.
Kalshi, meanwhile, wants the trailer gone before audiences even get that far.
The company is demanding Netflix remove the promotional video, publish a correction acknowledging it falsely implied trading took place in Nevada after the court order, and preserve all documents and communications related to the documentary’s production.
Netflix has not publicly responded to the allegations.
Featured image: Netflix via Tudum
The post Kalshi tells Netflix to pull prediction markets documentary trailer over ‘fake’ trade slip appeared first on ReadWrite.
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