A judge ruled Thursday that the Trump administration’s directive to fire tens of thousands of workers across the federal government is likely illegal. But it’s not yet clear what that means for current employees, as well as those who were already terminated under the directive. 

The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) issued the orders earlier this month amid Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency’s efforts to slash government spending. It targets “probationary” workers who have been in their current position for less than two years, which includes people who have been working in government for a long time and were recently promoted.

A group of labor unions swiftly challenged the directive in federal court, arguing that OPM lacked the authority to order mass firings and that the agency falsely cited employee performance issues. In remarks from the bench on Thursday, the judge in the case ordered OPM to rescind its directive and temporarily blocked planned terminations of civilian employees at the Department of Defense specifically. 

US District Judge William Alsup said that “Congress has given the authority to hire and fire to the agencies themselves.” 

“The Office of Personnel Management does not have any authority whatsoever, under any statute in the history of the universe, to hire and fire employees at another agency. They can hire and fire their own employees,” he added.

However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the jobs of federal workers are safe or that terminated employees will be able to return to their old posts. That may depend on what happens next in the courts.

“We know this decision is just a first step, but it gives federal employees a respite,” Lee Saunders, president of the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, said in a statement. 

What’s next for federal workers?

Alsup will consider whether to block the Trump administration from carrying out further terminations at a March 13 hearing. But even if he does, the Trump administration likely will not give up so easily on their goal of cutting the federal workforce by at least 10 percent. 

“The Trump administration would argue that federal courts have no authority to tell us who we have to hire,” said Cary Coglianese, a professor of administrative law at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School. 

At most, any such court interventions may only be able to temporarily delay the Trump administration’s plans. OPM may have to rescind its directive to fire workers, but Alsup acknowledged that government agencies, many now headed by Trump allies, still have the authority to do so themselves. The process might just be slower than it would be under a blunt government-wide directive.

Coglianese said that, just as during his first term, Trump and his allies attempted the “quick and dirty method” to achieve their policy goals, and after facing roadblocks in the courts, will likely “go back at it again in a smarter, more deliberate way, or a way that can be more justified on legal grounds.”

“This won’t be the last in the last skirmish in the larger battle, to be sure,” he said.

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